How to produce an accurate estimate

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A programmer I work with spent 4 hours producing a 14 day estimate for a
project. In the event the project took 15 days and his manager was annoyed
that he had estimated incorrectly.

Is there any research into the ratio between time taken to produce an
estimate and the accuracy of an estimate? Could it be said for example that
if the programmer had spent 8 hours on the estimate he would have been more
likely to have arrived at 15 days?


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