Re: Getting an semi accurate forecast

Tech-Archive recommends: Repair Windows Errors & Optimize Windows Performance

From: Michael R Middleton (middleton_at_starband.net)
Date: 02/19/05 

Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 16:21:21 -0800

Chapter 20, "Time Series Seasonality," of my book "Data Analysis Using
Microsoft Excel: Updated for Office XP," has step-by-step details for three
methods: regression using indicator variables, autoregression, and classical
time series decomposition. If you search for those phrases using Google
Groups, you may find some online assistance.

- Mike

www.mikemiddleton.com

<someone@somedomain.com.invalid> wrote in message
news:4216798e$1_4@127.0.0.1...
> Think retail sales....I have data from last 2 years of monthly sales, and
> I am looking for a formula that would take into effect increases or
> decreases in sales trends year to year but also the month to month trend
> and the end result would be the forecast of upcoming months sales based on
> these trends. My feelings are that current trends in increases or
> decreases should carry more weight than say this April to last April. What
> I am trying to say is that say Last year to this year growth only shows 2%
> but since I took over the last couple months have shown increases anywhere
> from 4 to 8 percent, what formula helps me budget upcoming months sales
> that incorporates this new found increase

Relevant Pages