Re: Estimates
- From: John Murray <jmurray@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 13:29:26 -0600
For the essence of the question, I don't know of any research out there that addresses the question that you ask. But just like programmers produce at vastly different speeds, it's not hard to see that those doing the estimation also would produce at vastly different speeds. Additionally, the estimate was only off by less than 10% which in my experience is highly accurate. My guess, based on the limited information, is that it's the manager that has the problem and not the estimator.
What this post doesn't provide is the cause of the under-delivery. Where people out (sick etc), did the plan estimate people working death-march hours? Was there scope-creep? Was the person who did the estimate the only person who worked on the project? Perhaps the estimator should have padded the estimate to account for unanticipated problems?
If you are concerned with estimation, I would suggest that you look at some of the more formal estimation methodologies including function point analysis.
John
Jason Madison wrote:
A programmer I work with spent 4 hours producing a 14 day estimate for a project. In the event the project took 15 days and his manager was annoyed that he had estimated incorrectly.
Is there any research into the ratio between time taken to produce an estimate and the accuracy of an estimate? Could it be said for example that if the programmer had spent 8 hours on the estimate he would have been more likely to have arrived at 15 days?
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